Let's hope so because this trading range is beyond boring. According to Bloomberg, a new survey predicts that the Vix, aka the volatility/fear gauge, which we discussed here, will hit 40 before 20. Currently the Vix is near 30. The consensus seems to be for the spike to occur later in the year after a slow summer - bummer.
Unfortunately only 100 investors were involved in the survey, but 74% predicted an increase in volatility to 40 is more probable than a decrease to 20. If that is true, then expect the market to sell-off, nothing crazy, but a decent correction which we really have not seen since the rally started March 6th.
The reason this article is of interest is with such consensus from the few investors involved in the survey, the conclusion is probably incorrect. If that is the case, and the Vix does see 20 before 40, that would be interpreted as bullish. Something to keep an eye on for sure.
5.29.2009
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The fact that the 50 day MA of the VIX has crossed below the 200 day MA of the VIX is a sign of a strong intermediate trend of a weakening in the VIX.
ReplyDeleteI do think the volatility OF the VIX is going to change soon....but I think the VIX is headed downward.